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Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Gas To Fuel RIL Profit; Subsidies Dent ONGC


Reliance Industries should post a third straight rise in quarterly profit on higher gas output from its field off India's east coast and as refining margins show signs of recovery.

Investors will be keen, too, for more detail from billionaire Mukesh Ambani's $73.4 billion group, India's top listed conglomerate, on plans to enter the power sector and a recently announced return to India's telecoms arena.

"I'm positive on Reliance's outlook. I think its foray into different sectors will create value," said Rakesh Rawal, head of private wealth management at Anand Rathi Financial Services.

"I don't doubt the managerial capabilities of the company's leadership. Reliance is a company people can bet on."

Reliance, whose interests include petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration, textiles and retail, has been looking to build its business beyond the domestic energy sector.

In June, it said it would invest $1.36 billion in the US shale gas assets of Pioneer Natural Resources, its second such investment in as many months.

Ambani, the world's fourth-richest man, struck a deal in May with his long-estranged younger brother Anil allowing them to compete directly with each other. Mukesh has since pursued markets where Anil is an established presence.

The Supreme Court ruled earlier in May in Mukesh Ambani's favour in a bitter public dispute over gas pricing that had hit Reliance Industries' share price performance.

Analysts reckon Reliance produced about 60 million standard cubic metres of gas a day (mmscmd) at its D6 block in the vast Krishna Godavari basin in the Bay of Bengal in April-June. The company began pumping gas from the block in April last year.

Gross refining margins (GRMs) -- a key measure of profitability -- are expected to have risen about 3 percent year-on-year in the June quarter to $7.7 a barrel. Reliance GRMs had dropped 24 percent in the March quarter, and had nearly halved in the December quarter.

Reliance's results will also be helped by its acquisition last year of unit Reliance Petroleum, and the company is expected to restate year-earlier net profit to make it comparable for the acquisition. Analysts expect a higher profit even after this restatement.

Subsidy Payouts Hit ONGC

State-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp is expected to post lower earnings as a rise in crude oil prices meant it had to make higher subsidy payouts.

ONGC is required to partially subsidise the sale of fuel to state-run retailers, who sell at government-set, below-market prices.

The government recently deregulated gasoline prices and has said it would free diesel prices as well, but clarity on the subsidy-sharing mechanism for other fuels has still not emerged.

Poll contributors: Angel, Motilal Oswal, Macquarie, IDFC, IIFL, Ambit, JM Financial, Antique, CLSA, Edelweiss and Kotak.
 

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